Predictive Model and Risk Factors of Under-five Mortality in Nigeria: A Study Based on 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey

  • D. A. Agunbiade Department of Mathematical Sciences, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Ogun State, Nigeria
  • O. Fatoki Department of Statistics, Ogun State Institute of Technology, Igbesa, Ogun State, Nigeria
  • N. F. Adeleye Department of Statistics, Ogun State Institute of Technology, Igbesa, Ogun State, Nigeria
Keywords: under-five mortality, logistics regression model, Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey, predictors


The death of children under-five years is one of the critical issues in public health and the need for improving child survival continues to be a matter of urgent concern. In this study, we develop a predictive model in order to examine the risk factors of under-five mortality in Nigeria. The study utilized data from 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health survey. The demographic and mortality data of 127,545 children were extracted and univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were employed. The results revealed that under-five mortality was 143 deaths per 1,000 live births in Nigeria. The likelihood of death was higher among males compared to females children (OR = 1.893, P<0.05). First and second birth order have a lower chances of decreasing odds of under-five children (OR = 0.737, P<0.05) and (OR = 1.888, P<0.05).The under-five mortality was higher among children born to mothers who belong to other religions compared to Christians. Islam (OR = 1.689, P<0.05) and traditionalist (OR = 2.705, P<0.05) respectively. Public servant (OR = 1.881, P<0.05) and unmarried mother (OR = 1.896, P<0.05) were increased the odds of dying chances of under-five mortality in Nigeria. Children of mothers without education experienced more death compared to mothers who attended post-secondary education (OR = 3.372, P<0.05). Sex of child, birth order, religion, marital status, maternal occupation and maternal education were significant factors associated with under-five mortality in Nigeria. Thus, planning and implementing relevant strategies that focus on those identified risks factors of under-five mortality is required for improvement of child survival in Nigeria.


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How to Cite
Agunbiade, D. A., Fatoki, O., & Adeleye, N. F. (2023). Predictive Model and Risk Factors of Under-five Mortality in Nigeria: A Study Based on 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey . Earthline Journal of Mathematical Sciences, 13(2), 399-411.