Fitted Copula Statistical Models for Four African and Four Major Stock Markets

Abstract

The application of copula has become popular in recent years. The use of correlation as a dependence measure has several pitfalls and hence the application of regression prediction model using this correlation may not be an appropriate method. In financial markets, there is often a non-linear dependence between returns. Thus, alternative methods for capturing co-dependency should be considered, such as copula based ones. This paper studies the dependence structure between the four largest African stock markets in terms of market capitalization and other developed stock markets over the period 2003 to 2018 using copula models. The value at risk was used to determine the risk associated with the stock. The ten copula models were fitted to the log returns calculated from the data, two countries at a time of the twenty-eight pairs and examined. The Gumbel copula gives the best fit in terms of log-likelihood values, value of the Akaike information criterion, value of the Bayesian information criterion, value of the consistent Akaike information criterion, value of the corrected Akaike information criterion, value of the Hannan Quinn criterion and p-value of the information matrix equality of White. Estimates of value at risk with probability p for daily returns were computed using the best fitted copula model, from these value at risk, it is seen that SA/FTSE100 have the least risk while EGY/KEN has the highest risk. Prediction is given in terms of correlation and value at risk.